Brexit and a Border poll

The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll offers hope for both sides in a potential border poll in the South. Many column inches have been devoted in the Northern Ireland press to voting intentions in a border poll. Southern Irish public opinion is examined less often, perhaps in part because the Good Friday Agreement, in mandating that only the consent of both North and South can bring about a United Ireland, renders Southern public opinion relevant insofar as both are obtained. Furthermore British legislation restricts when the Northern Ireland Secretary may call a border poll i.e. when he believes there is a likelihood of change.

As such, the United Ireland debate may seem to some to lack urgency, in a context where only 1 poll (one by Lord Ashcroft' in 2019 has found majority support for Irish reunification in recent years in Northern Ireland. In contrast, there are no political parties in Dail Eireann or Seanad Eireann that openly oppose it. But to some extent, failure to advocate for a proposition can act as cover in Irish politics for those who privately support - or at least acquiesce - in the century-old partition of Ireland. This need not always be the case. Fianna Fáil's slogan "The Republican Party", however, deserves to be called into question, given that they have not pushed for a border poll since the Good Friday Agreement, In particular, Micheal Martin, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, prefers to talk of uniting the people rather than the territory. Some within his party have expressed unhappiness about this, perhaps out of personal conviction, or concern that Sinn Féin is stealing Fianna Fáil's "republican" clothes. 

In an ironic twist, Fine Gael is now more outspoken on Irish Unity than Fianna Fáil. This is a role reversal in Irish politics. Fine Gael are, the heirs to the pro-Treaty party -  Cumann na nGaedhael - that fought the Irish Civil War in defence of the Treaty that accepted Northern Ireland's right to opt-out of the Irish Free State (which later evolved into the Irish Republic by 1948 largely due to constitutional changes under Fianna Fáil, but helped along by the Statute of Westminster 1931 negotiated by Cumann na nGaedhael). The Statute of Westminster 1931 was negotiated in the last days of W.T. Cosgrave's government. It allowed Commonwealth countries to repeal laws passed for them by the British Parliament, and rescinded Westminster's right to legislate for Commonwealth countries. De Valera was able to use this, upon coming to power as head of the first Fianna Fáil government in 1932, to incrementally dismantle much of the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921. He began with the abolition of the Oath of Allegiance to the British monarch required of TDs and Senators, and the abolition of the Senate. He took advantage of the Abdication Crisis of 1936 to pass the External Relations Act, deleting references to the King from the Constitution. He then introduced the 1937 Constitution, which without declaring a Republic, advanced it by containing no references to the King. It was only in 1948 that the Irish state officially became a republic, under the Fine Gael Taoiseach John A Costello.

The findings include that 60% support for a United Ireland if a referendum were held now, with 25% opposed and 15% undecided. This support falls to 41% when the respondent is asked how they would vote if unity required they personally pay higher taxes, while 43% are in that event opposed. Just 25% support re-joining the Commonwealth as part of the compromises to achieve a United Ireland. Just 39% support reserving Cabinet seats for Unionists, to 37% opposed. 45% support retaining Northern Ireland power sharing in a United Ireland, to 32% opposed. There is also strong opposition to replacing the National Anthem and Irish tricolour flag. 59% of men and 63% of women oppose abolition of the Irish Tricolour. Just 35% support changing the National Anthem (Amhrán na bhFiann). The poll points to an electorate with conflicting feels on a United Ireland. A referendum will be a battle between heart and head. Which will win out? The sentimental desire of most Irish people for reunification, or the pragmatic fears that it would be unaffordable (a contention that economics disagree upon), or import Northern Ireland's sectarian politics and social conservatism into a society that has been liberalising since the 1990s?