Thursday, February 24, 2011

FG internal poll predicts 82 seats

With the moratorium on election-reporting only applying to broadcasters, the Irish Daily Mail is today reporting the findings of internal polling by FG. The predicted seats for each party are: FG 82, Labour 30, SF 14, ULA 4, Greens 2 and Independents 12.

Constituencies of interest:

- Laois-Offaly to be only 2-seat FF constituency. But second seat “shaky”
- To lose seats: Sean Haughey, Pat Carey, JOD, Dick Roche, Barry Andrews, Billy Kelleher, Bobby Aylward, Brendan Smith, Michael Mulcahy, Michael Moynihan,
- Brian Lenihan “hanging on by fingertips” in Dublin West).
- Mary Hanafin and Mary Coughlan “fighting for their political-lives”.
- Sargent and Ryan to hold seats.
- With CC, 82 would be sufficient for a working-majority. FG-Greens would have majority of 4.

Hard to call constituencies:
- Wexford hard to card because of Mick Wallace candidacy (Ind).
- Carlow-Kilkenny hard to call because of “potential for geographical-voting across party lines”.
- “Hard to know” if Aine Brady will hold on in Kildare North.
- DL. “Fine Gael now believe their second candidate, Mary Mitchell O’Connor, will take the final seat at the expense of the ULA’s Richard Boyd Barrett”.

On the credibility of the research:

“But analysts from other parties have always acknowledged the accuracy of the tallies, which are based on national and local opinion polls, bookies’ odds, private local tracking polls and reactions on the doorstep.”

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