Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Sinn Féin to win Donegal by-election - Poll

The latest by-election poll from Red C (conducted for Paddy Power) in the Donegal South-West by-election campaign confirms SF on target to take the seat. The trends below are comparisons with General Election 2007. The candidate support figures are: Pearse Doherty (SF) 40%, Brian O’Domhnaill (FF) 19%, Barry O'Neill (FG) 15%, Frank McBrearty (Lab) 14%, Thomas Pringle (Independent) 8%, and Anne Sweeney (Independent) 2%. In transfer-terms, the numbers are: Pearse Doherty (SF) 19%, Brian O'Domhnaill (FF) 10%, Barry O'Neill (FG) 14%, Frank McBrearty (Labour) 20%, Thomas Pringle (Independent) 9% and Anne Sweeney (Independent) 7%. As a result, Paddy Power have shortened the odds on Doherty taking the seat from 1/5 to 1/8. The poll shows Fianna Fail candidate Brian O’Domhnaill fares poorly from Sinn Féin transfers. Barry O’Neill, Fine Gael and Frank McBrearty Junior, Labour; both secure a similar share of first preference vote in the constituency at 15% and 14% respectively, but initial analysis of transfers puts McBrearty ahead. Asked for General Election voting-intentions, Sinn Féin take 31% of the first preference vote - 10 points ahead of their impressive performance just over 3 years ago. The Labour vote in Donegal SW has risen by 15 percentage-points to 18%. 46% in the constituency prefer Eamon Gilmore as Taoiseach, compared to 18% for Enda Kenny, 13% for Brian Cowen, with 13% favouring none of these and 10% undecided. Fianna Fáil score just 19% in General Election voting-intentions.

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